Crossing Watch Back to the replay

Each crossing floods at its own rain signature

One gauge reading every 15 minutes, plus a few dated flood reports, is enough to learn a trigger for each named crossing. Every “flooded” or “clear” tap from a rider sharpens it.

The biggest storm in the file fell on Fri 20 Mar, 17:15–20:15: 51 mm, with 12 mm in the hardest fifteen minutes.

The county warning said “more than 80 mm in some areas”. Crossing Watch’s call for that evening: Kimbo–Matangi likely flooded from 18:00 for two and a half hours; at 20:30 the call eases to wait.

1One gauge, every 15 minutes

The JHUB weather station at JKUAT. Its rain column under-reports about 17×, so we read the gauge's running daily total instead; its second gauge rises with the sun and falls at night, so we ignore it.

52 / 52 mm

2Every crossing has a bucket

Rain fills the bucket; it drains by half every so often. That half-life is the crossing’s signature: a campus culvert empties in minutes, a road dip in an hour or two, a river bridge over half a day. A crossing floods when its bucket passes its trigger (red dots).

3Reports set the trigger

A “clear” report at 19 mm says the trigger is above 19; a “flooded” report at 36 mm says it’s below 36. Each report is weighed (riders can be wrong), and the band is where the trigger most likely sits. Try it on a bridge nobody has reported yet:

806040200

Trigger: 28–88 mm is only a guess for a river bridge. Add a report and watch it tighten.

Honest about the data

  • Triggers start from one storm.

    The Kimbo–Matangi band comes from a single dated news report. Wide bands say so on screen, and every tap narrows them.

  • Faulty gauges are caught, not trusted.

    Gaps, spikes, flatlines and counters that run backwards are flagged. A crossing with a silent gauge gets NO CALL, never CROSS.

  • Calls err towards caution.

    A flooded report in the last 30 minutes forces at least WAIT. A clear report never forces CROSS.

  • Locations are approximate.

    Crossings come from OpenStreetMap; the exact flooded spot on Kimbo–Matangi still needs a rider to pin it.

What exists today

SourceCoversNames a crossing?
County warning (Kenya Met)Whole county, ‘some areas’, about a day aheadNo
Google Flood Hub20×20 km cells, up to 24 h ahead, dense areas onlyNo
mafuriko246 fixed Nairobi hotspotsNo, and not Juja
FlowSafeFlood risk per farm from the same JKUAT gaugeNo
Crossing WatchSix named Juja crossings, every 15 minutes, with a detourYes

Why now

Kenya Met expects wetter-than-normal October–December rain in counties including Kiambu, starting in the second and third weeks of October. A pilot needs three boda stages, JKUAT, one gauge and riders willing to tap.

Watch the 20 March replay

Sources